The future of... an attack on Iran

If Israel has nuclear weapons, why shouldn't Iran?
Most of the world assumes that Israel has a substantial amount of nuclear weapons (some estimates go as high as 400 warheads), and therefore this question is being asked. The answer is quite simple: Israel has never threatened to annihilate any other sovereign nation, not even its worst enemies. According to some sources, the only time Israel was close to using its nuclear arsenal was in late 1973, when both the Syrian and Egyptian armies invaded it and there was a real threat to the nation's existence.

There is an opinion that like it happened with China, Iran will also become more moderate and rational when they get nuclear power. I am not sure if this is a similar case, because back in the 1960s, China was mostly isolated after it severed its ties with USSR. Iran on the other hand, gets support from Russia, China, North Korea and some south American nations. As flimsy as this support is, it does reduce Iran's incentive to become more tolerant towards the West.

Should Iran be attacked?
I hope not. Wars are never a good idea and may cause instability, however the difference here is the fact that Iran already causes instability by itself as a part of their foreign policy, either by themselves or by proxies like the Hezbollah. If there will be a military attack it will to be large, in order to completely stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program: the enrichment and production facilities are scattered all over this large country, many of them fortified and underground which makes aerial bombings very difficult and mostly ineffective. The main reason for an attack is that diplomacy has failed abd sanctions have mostly failed as well, and we're close to the point when we will have to use what Clausewitz called "the other means".

If an attack happens, who should conduct it?
The country that has most to gain from an attack on Iran is obviously Israel, even if it will suffer from consequences like international protests, Iran-sponsored terror attacks and direct retaliation in the form of missiles attacks. Unfortunately Israel simply doesn't have the means: its fleet of F-16I and F-15I attack airplanes, ballistic missiles and submarines, won't be able to go through such a large-scale, long-range attack. Ideally, it should be a coalition of those who Iran threatens, meaning US, EU, Arab and Israeli forces. This obviously cannot happen, and we will need to remove Israel from this coalition. An American-European-Arab coalition was formed in 1991 against Iraq, which was a far weaker enemy, which received far less international support than Iran. My best bet will be just a coalition of the US and the EU, without official Turkish or Arab involvement.

And what if the Iranians are telling the truth, and do not develop nuclear weapons?
Ironically, that reminds me of how Israel objected to international supervision over its nuclear facility in the 1960s. If Iran has nothing to hide, why would it object so much to international supervision? The UN made it clear that nuclear research, energy production and weapon development are not internal affairs. Israel was at least honest about it and refused to sign the nonproliferation treaty. Iran did sign it but refuses to cooperate and remove suspicion. Let's face it, this behavior does not induce confidence.

Mobile Computing in 2012

This original idea behind this blog was to "predict the present": use common sense in order to explain what's going on, in hope of trying to be better prepared for what's going to happen. I do think that trying to accurately predict the future is somewhat pointless, but speculating about it, isn't: if you do it right, you end up with some plausible scenarios which you can work with.

So what's most plausible to happen in 2012?

Smartphones
In 2011, 7 out of 10 mobile phones sold in Israel were smartphones. It is true that they are more expensive, more fragile and in some ways less practical than a regular mobile phone, but they combine the capabilities of almost any other gadget you own: camera, music player, GPS system, diary, personal computer and obviously a phone. We used to think that for this level of compactness we have to compromise in quality or functionality, but in 2011 we saw significant improvements in smartphones' hardware and software, which turned them from semi-functional Swiss Army knives into Leatherman multi-tools.

As for 2012, we will surely see even faster phones with increased amounts of memory and storage. Existing technologies like NFC will become more common and there's a slight chance that battery life will also improve a little, thanks to new the new processors and operating systems that can use them. Smartphones will increasingly replace your wallet and ID card, which will cause concerns about their security. We may also see smartphones that will be able to replace your streamer and send audio, video and Internet content directly to your TV screen.

When it comes to form factor, in 2011 smartphones became thinner but also too large. I really think that for the current technology, 9mm is slim enough and can easily slip into the tightest skinny jeans. On the other hand, we saw phones with 4.7" and even 5.3" - this is too large and cannot be used with just one hand. I really hope that this trend of "bigger is better" will end this year.

Tablets
It is not a secret that I dislike Apple, but I cannot ignore the fact that the iPad is a huge success and it's the only premium tablet that sells in large numbers. In fact, Apple has about 75% of the market and a large ecosystem of applications, accessories and content providers around it. I do not think this situation will not change drastically, despite Android 4.0 and better models. Android-based tablets are enjoying success in the lower-end and eBook reader markets but there are rumors about a cheaper, smaller iPad. I personally don't think it will happen.

The great unknown here is Microsoft's Windows 8. It can run on efficient ARM processors which will allow it to operate on approximately the same hardware as Android and iOS. It may not sound that revolutionary, considering Microsoft's underwhelming success in the mobile phone market, but let's not forget: when it comes to ecosystems, they are still the biggest software producer in the world, and own both Office and Exchange, probably the most widely used business applications. If they won't mess it up, Microsoft may make a tablet OS that can actually be used for work and content creation, not just consumption.

Tablets use the same hardware as smartphone so we can assume that the same improvements we will there will apply to tablets as well. We may see newer, denser screens with resolutions greater than HD. I do hope that we won't see a 3D capable tablet.

Laptops
The laptop market shrunk in 2011, due to the increased popularity of mobile phones and tablets. Laptops are not cool anymore and netbooks seem slow and useless even for basic uses. Intel's idea to solve it is the ultrabooks, which are extremely thin, light and quite powerful laptops that look similar to Apple's Macbook Air. For the time being they haven't been a huge success, but reduced prices and more choice may change that. However, laptops will probably continue on losing ground to easier-to-use, smaller, cheaper and cooler mobile devices.

A gradual change we may see is in laptop storage: most laptops are still equipped with regular, spinning hard drives, however the new ultrabooks use the smaller solid-state drives (SSD). Increased demand for these drives will increase production and drive prices down, which in turn will make SSDs more common in less expensive machines as well. Other technologies we may see this year in some laptops are WiDi, which allows to wirelessly attach screens to laptops and OLED displays which will allows perfect viewing angles, longer battery life and thinner chassis. Intel's Thunderbolt could potentially make desktop computers obsolete by allowing external upgrades to laptops, but its adoption seem to be slowed than expected.

So what would I like to see next year in the mobile marker? I would like the stupid patent war end, better batteries, better user experience and lower prices. I wish for these every year and to be honest, the wish gets partially granted every year. I think this year will be the same.

T - 366

According to a popular meme, we have one year to go. The world will end exactly one year from now, just a little after the winter solstice of 2012 (also known as 21.12.2012). The Mayan said so, the Internet says so and even Ronald Emmerich, the great documentary director said so. So who are we disagree?

The problem is to begin with, that the Mayan never said that the world will end. All they said is that their 4Th era will end and the 5Th one will begin. They actually see it as a cause for celebration, in very much the same way that we saw the beginning of the new millennium as an opportunity to party and replace our IT equipment.

Update: Actually some say that the end of an era is the end of the world, which means that the Mayan civilization is similar to the Western civilization in one respect: we can't seem to be able to agree on anything.

Some epocalyptians would say "Yeah, but look at what happened in 2011. Natural disasters, revolutions, economic collapse, the death of Steven Jobs". I agree, it was quite an eventful year, but how is that related in any way to the concept of "the end of the world"? Well, It isn't. Economic hardship always causes political unrest and natural disasters happen frequently at various magnitudes in various locations around the world. The sad truth is that the only difference this time was that it happened in one of the most developed countries in the world, so we got live video streams.

I can predict what's going to happen in 2012: some people will die, but more will be born. Some leaders will get elected and reelected, others will be lose their positions. Some people will still struggle to get enough food to eat, others will have to struggle with the choice between the McLaren MP4-12C and the Ferrari 458. Many people will find the answers to all of their questions in god, while major scientific discoveries will be made. Apple will release more products that their names start with an "i".

Maybe I am wrong and the world IS going to end exactly one year from now, but I do have good news: 2012 will be 2.74% longer than 2011, so we have one more day to party.

Opinion Nanny State

Back in 1948, Israel declared itself as a "Jewish and democratic state". Let's not be naive, it is almost impossible to make it work smoothly in a way that everyone is satisfied. In fact for a long time (1948 to 1966), the democratic part of this declaration was relevant to non-Arabs only (Jews, Druze, other minorities). The Arabs were still allowed to vote and had some degree of freedom of speech, but that was about it. They were governed by the military in their towns and villages and were greatly limited in their movements and activities.

Strangely though, the idea of "Jewish and democratic" sort of worked for a long time. Not without frictions, not perfectly and the Jewish and Arabs community are mostly separated, but much of it is by choice. Israel is by far not the "apartheid state" which human rights organizations claim it is: Arabs and other minorities vote, have complete freedom of speech, receive social welfare, can study universities and are protected by laws against discrimination.

Something else is worrying and might undermine the idea of "Jewish and democratic" state, and it's not the way the Jewish majority treats minorities, or the LGBT community or even illegal immigrants. It's the right-wing insecurity that makes me concerned. Yes, there is a small group of people inside Israel that can be described as anti-Zionists and object to its existence. It's natural: political opinions, like any other natural phenomenon, behave according to a Normal Distribution curve and you can find a few extremists on both sides. But the majority - the vast majority - are somewhere in the center. Patriotic, loyal and willing to serve their country to one degree or another.

Making such a legislative effort in order to curb these few extremists (which can literally be numbered in dozens) does not make any sort of sense to me. Is this right-wing government that insecure about its own policy, that it's willing to sacrifice basic human rights for even its most loyal citizens, just in order to stop people from talking against it? Is it willing to throw away one of the few and strongest arguments we have left, which is the fact we are the only democracy in the Middle East?

Unlike capitalism, Democracy is equal for everyone, especially in this day and age. Everyone should be able to speak his or her mind. Some of those who support the laws say that these laws only limit certain, extreme and damaging opinions. But the fact is, no one can tell what is a damaging opinion and what isn't. Furthermore, by doing so, you DO limit the freedom of speech and conscience, however you look at it.

I honestly believe that the Israelis are self-assured enough and can form their own opinions by themselves. We do not need a government that tells us what to think and prevents us from speaking our minds. I belong to the center-left, I whole heatedly agree with the idea of Israel as a national home for Jews, but I will not accept it being turned into yet another dictatorship in the middle east. If it will, it won't be my country anymore. Literally.

The man who dared to simplify

It is known that Nicola Tesla discovered the alternating current, which allowed the efficient generation and delivery of electricity. It's also known that Daimler built the first internal combustion engine and car. Still, many believe that Edison had "invented" electricity, and it was Ford's Model T to become the first car to sell more than a million (and later 10 million) copies.

How did that happen?

These people took existing products, discoveries and ideas, polished them, simplified them and made them accesible to the masses. Tesla did discover AC current and efficient way to generate and conduct it, but Edison became famous because he let people see in the dark and listen to music. Daimler did build the first car from the engine and up, but it was Ford who found a way to build them cheaply and on a massive scale.

Same goes for Steven Jobs: Creative and Cowon were already making digital music players a few years before the iPod arrived. Sony Ericsson and HTC were selling smart phones long before the iPhone was announced. Tablet computers have been there, in one form or another since the mid-1990s, but it was Apple's CEO who popularized them, made them a success and establish an emotional connection between the costumers and their devices.

But the greater thing Apple and Jobs are responsible for is ushering the age of personal computing. They did so by creating devices that were increasingly easy to use, functional, good-looking and relatively affordable. It started with the Apple computers, through the MacIntosh computers, and on to the recent i-devices. All of these devices either created whole new industries or at least made the competition work harder.

We shouldn't also forget Steven Jobs' activities in the years of his exile from Apple. His investment in Pixar, George Lucas struggling software workshop, ultimately led to a revolution in animated movies with masterpieces like the Toy Story series, The Incredibles and my favorite, Wall*E. His work at NeXT led to the creation of the object-oriented windowing systems we see today in every operating system, from OS X, through Windows and to Linux. Also, it should be mentioned that Sir Tim Berners-Lee, the creator of the HTTP and the first web browser, used a NeXT computer both for the work and as the world's first web server.

Some time ago I called Apple a religion and Steven Jobs the prophet of that religion. I meant it as a parody, but in a way it is true. And sure, I never owned an Apple product and probably never will and I do not like Apple's business practices. But as a technology enthusiast I have to appreciate Jobs, because he dared seeing the big picture clearly, and then repaint it the way he thought is best.

An unexpected equalizer

"A Coke is a Coke and no amount of money can get you a better Coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking."

Andy Warhol

Ever since the industrial revolution began, societies became "flatter". I am not saying more equal: the rich, as usual did get richer, but at least more people were provided with an opportunity to live better and more pleasant lives. Obviously, most of us won't be able to buy a mansion in the Hamptons or outside London, but we do have roofs over our heads, some sort of transportation, some level of education and we do live about 30 years longer than we did in the 19th century.

But we always want what the rich people have. We still look at their BMW cars, their Omega watches and Prada and Aramani outfits. This is a part of our Western Civilization to want more, and as long as we don't deteriorate into the kind of riots that happened in London last month, it's mostly alright. But I have great news for you: in some little ways, you live like billionaires.

If you go to a computer shop in the street, you can buy the same laptop as businessman. If you can't afford the same brand, you can buy a similarity equipped laptop for a much lower price. Those two laptops may not have the same badge, but will have the same display, same processor, same graphics and same storage. There's even a chance that with the "rubbish" brand will give you longer warranty and better hardware.

Things become even more interesting when it comes to mobile devices: many consider the iPhone 4 to be the best phone money can buy. It sold tens of millions of units, but it will always be the same iPhone 4, with the same display, the same interface and the same grip-of-death problem. If you rather have an Android phone, the best model you can buy (at the time of writing) is the Samsung Galaxy S2 - which costs around €600. Not cheap, but certainly not out of reach for most of the middle-class.

Sometimes you do see premium products, like diamond-coated iPhone 4 or gold-plated Nexus S (I am not making it up - you can actually buy these products). But these modifications do not add functionality, usually ruin the elegant, no-nonsense industrial design. Also, technological products are meant to be temporary, replaceable and they get outdated very quickly. Trying to cover a phone, a tablet or a laptop with diamonds or Swarovski crystals is like gluing plastic flowers to a tree: come summer, it will look pathetic and dishonest.

Technology made convenience more accessible, and mass production made luxury widespread, and despite everything, this trend only grows stronger. Yes, renting a 2 bedroom apartment is not as nice as owning a house in Beverly Hills, Ford Focus is not as fun as a Ferrari 458, but I guarantee you that your HTC Sensation phone is just as good as a billionaire's. Maybe even better, because you appreciate it more.

An open letter to Mr. Adams

Many times in the past 10 years I wondered how would you comment on the increasingly functional and complex gadgets that appeared during the last decade. How would you react to the metamorphose of your beloved Apple from a small and alternative computer maker into the technology powerhouse that they today. What would you say about the rise of Google and Wikipedia as the predominant providers of knowledge, the Facebook generation and the loss of privacy.

How would you include references to the war terror attacks, the war in Iraq and the credit crunch in your stories. How would you try to help the people of the Indian ocean, New Orleans, Haiti and Japan. What would you write in the obituaries for George Harrison, John Entwistle, Gerry Rafferty and rock music in general?

But I don't like "what if" questions. Instead, today I keep asking myself where are you? Are you working in a diner alongside Elvis? Are you playing music with your dream band? Maybe quietly typing a book on your MacBook Air, a book which we won't have any last chance to read.

You are greatly missed.