Mobile Computing in 2012

This original idea behind this blog was to "predict the present": use common sense in order to explain what's going on, in hope of trying to be better prepared for what's going to happen. I do think that trying to accurately predict the future is somewhat pointless, but speculating about it, isn't: if you do it right, you end up with some plausible scenarios which you can work with.

So what's most plausible to happen in 2012?

Smartphones
In 2011, 7 out of 10 mobile phones sold in Israel were smartphones. It is true that they are more expensive, more fragile and in some ways less practical than a regular mobile phone, but they combine the capabilities of almost any other gadget you own: camera, music player, GPS system, diary, personal computer and obviously a phone. We used to think that for this level of compactness we have to compromise in quality or functionality, but in 2011 we saw significant improvements in smartphones' hardware and software, which turned them from semi-functional Swiss Army knives into Leatherman multi-tools.

As for 2012, we will surely see even faster phones with increased amounts of memory and storage. Existing technologies like NFC will become more common and there's a slight chance that battery life will also improve a little, thanks to new the new processors and operating systems that can use them. Smartphones will increasingly replace your wallet and ID card, which will cause concerns about their security. We may also see smartphones that will be able to replace your streamer and send audio, video and Internet content directly to your TV screen.

When it comes to form factor, in 2011 smartphones became thinner but also too large. I really think that for the current technology, 9mm is slim enough and can easily slip into the tightest skinny jeans. On the other hand, we saw phones with 4.7" and even 5.3" - this is too large and cannot be used with just one hand. I really hope that this trend of "bigger is better" will end this year.

Tablets
It is not a secret that I dislike Apple, but I cannot ignore the fact that the iPad is a huge success and it's the only premium tablet that sells in large numbers. In fact, Apple has about 75% of the market and a large ecosystem of applications, accessories and content providers around it. I do not think this situation will not change drastically, despite Android 4.0 and better models. Android-based tablets are enjoying success in the lower-end and eBook reader markets but there are rumors about a cheaper, smaller iPad. I personally don't think it will happen.

The great unknown here is Microsoft's Windows 8. It can run on efficient ARM processors which will allow it to operate on approximately the same hardware as Android and iOS. It may not sound that revolutionary, considering Microsoft's underwhelming success in the mobile phone market, but let's not forget: when it comes to ecosystems, they are still the biggest software producer in the world, and own both Office and Exchange, probably the most widely used business applications. If they won't mess it up, Microsoft may make a tablet OS that can actually be used for work and content creation, not just consumption.

Tablets use the same hardware as smartphone so we can assume that the same improvements we will there will apply to tablets as well. We may see newer, denser screens with resolutions greater than HD. I do hope that we won't see a 3D capable tablet.

Laptops
The laptop market shrunk in 2011, due to the increased popularity of mobile phones and tablets. Laptops are not cool anymore and netbooks seem slow and useless even for basic uses. Intel's idea to solve it is the ultrabooks, which are extremely thin, light and quite powerful laptops that look similar to Apple's Macbook Air. For the time being they haven't been a huge success, but reduced prices and more choice may change that. However, laptops will probably continue on losing ground to easier-to-use, smaller, cheaper and cooler mobile devices.

A gradual change we may see is in laptop storage: most laptops are still equipped with regular, spinning hard drives, however the new ultrabooks use the smaller solid-state drives (SSD). Increased demand for these drives will increase production and drive prices down, which in turn will make SSDs more common in less expensive machines as well. Other technologies we may see this year in some laptops are WiDi, which allows to wirelessly attach screens to laptops and OLED displays which will allows perfect viewing angles, longer battery life and thinner chassis. Intel's Thunderbolt could potentially make desktop computers obsolete by allowing external upgrades to laptops, but its adoption seem to be slowed than expected.

So what would I like to see next year in the mobile marker? I would like the stupid patent war end, better batteries, better user experience and lower prices. I wish for these every year and to be honest, the wish gets partially granted every year. I think this year will be the same.

An open letter to Mr. Adams

Many times in the past 10 years I wondered how would you comment on the increasingly functional and complex gadgets that appeared during the last decade. How would you react to the metamorphose of your beloved Apple from a small and alternative computer maker into the technology powerhouse that they today. What would you say about the rise of Google and Wikipedia as the predominant providers of knowledge, the Facebook generation and the loss of privacy.

How would you include references to the war terror attacks, the war in Iraq and the credit crunch in your stories. How would you try to help the people of the Indian ocean, New Orleans, Haiti and Japan. What would you write in the obituaries for George Harrison, John Entwistle, Gerry Rafferty and rock music in general?

But I don't like "what if" questions. Instead, today I keep asking myself where are you? Are you working in a diner alongside Elvis? Are you playing music with your dream band? Maybe quietly typing a book on your MacBook Air, a book which we won't have any last chance to read.

You are greatly missed.

Linux lost the battle. Linux won the war

The most argued about subject in the rather short history of personal computing, is "which one's better? PC or Mac". When it comes to numbers, Microsoft Windows computers still outsell MacOS computers at a rate of 1 to 9. However, Mac users are adamant that they use the better platform and its success in the premium laptop market is a proof. I won't get into this argument, mainly because I have an opinion about it: I am an atheist which means I don't believe in any sort of religion, even if its symbol is a bitten fruit.

There is a third platform as well, with an even fewer and more fanatic followers. And if Mac users feel they are unique because they are 1 in 10, imagine how an avid Linux user feels - he is one in 100. A Linux user will argue that his operating system is being used in the highest-end servers and supercomputers, that it's open, rock-solid, fast, efficient, highly customizable, has plenty of software packages and above all - it's free.

You cannot argue with a Linux fanatic. Not just because he feels really special, but because he is right. However, there is a reason why Linux users are a minority: they don't multiply. They are too busy finding drivers, compiling code and posting questions in support forums. While Linux systems are remarkably low-maintenance when configured properly, getting to this configuration is as easy as cross-country mono-cycling. Linux is not easy to configure and use for an advanced user, and it's close to impossible for a novice. The easiest and most popular Linux distribution Ubuntu is the closest thing Linux has to offer as a mainstream operating system, but in my experience it's still far less friendly for a power-user than Windows 7. So I am using Linux for my home server, but I rarely use it on my PC.

And yet, at the moment, I use more Linux-based devices than Windows-based devices. How is that possible? Well the fact is, we tend to confuse the terms "operating system" and "user interface". An operating system is actually a bunch of smaller programs, and user interface is just one of them, very much in the same way that a car's body shell is just one part, while the interior consists of chassis, engine, transmission and stirring. If we apply this analogy to Linux, then it has a brilliant chassis, engine and transmission. It's also very fast and very safe, but you won't buy it because it looks like a 1970s Lada.

When it comes to specialized uses, Linux is hard to beat. The fact that it's lightweight and open allowed developers to adapt it to both high-end servers on one hand and to devices with limited resources on the other hand. The fact that in Linux the user interface can be completely replaced makes it a perfect "embedded" usage such as in internet-connected devices, mobile phones, tablets and many others.

In addition to my home server, my media streamer in the living room runs Linux. My wireless router also uses a specialized version of Linux called DD-WRT. Both my phone and my ebook reader use Google Android, a Linux derivative. Hence, I use Windows on my desktop and laptop computers, but I use Linux on one computer and four different devices.

While Linux enjoys a decent success in the high end corporates and the embedded devices markets, Android is quickly becoming the major player in the mobile, Internet-connected industry. Recent studies show that it may already have the largest market share. And this figure should not be taken lightly, because according to another study, during 2010 more tablets and smartphones than desktop and laptop computers.

Linux is a great example for a products that its benefits overtake its faults and manages to carve a niche (or actually several of them) and become a major player in most of them. So you might not see it on your desktop, but you might hold it in your hand, read of it, or even be connected to it without even realizing it. Linux lost a battle, but it may win the war.