This original idea behind this blog was to "predict the present": use common sense in order to explain what's going on, in hope of trying to be better prepared for what's going to happen. I do think that trying to accurately predict the future is somewhat pointless, but speculating about it, isn't: if you do it right, you end up with some plausible scenarios which you can work with.
So what's most plausible to happen in 2012?
Smartphones
In 2011, 7 out of 10 mobile phones sold in Israel were smartphones. It is true that they are more expensive, more fragile and in some ways less practical than a regular mobile phone, but they combine the capabilities of almost any other gadget you own: camera, music player, GPS system, diary, personal computer and obviously a phone. We used to think that for this level of compactness we have to compromise in quality or functionality, but in 2011 we saw significant improvements in smartphones' hardware and software, which turned them from semi-functional Swiss Army knives into Leatherman multi-tools.
As for 2012, we will surely see even faster phones with increased amounts of memory and storage. Existing technologies like NFC will become more common and there's a slight chance that battery life will also improve a little, thanks to new the new processors and operating systems that can use them. Smartphones will increasingly replace your wallet and ID card, which will cause concerns about their security. We may also see smartphones that will be able to replace your streamer and send audio, video and Internet content directly to your TV screen.
When it comes to form factor, in 2011 smartphones became thinner but also too large. I really think that for the current technology, 9mm is slim enough and can easily slip into the tightest skinny jeans. On the other hand, we saw phones with 4.7" and even 5.3" - this is too large and cannot be used with just one hand. I really hope that this trend of "bigger is better" will end this year.
Tablets
It is not a secret that I dislike Apple, but I cannot ignore the fact that the iPad is a huge success and it's the only premium tablet that sells in large numbers. In fact, Apple has about 75% of the market and a large ecosystem of applications, accessories and content providers around it. I do not think this situation will not change drastically, despite Android 4.0 and better models. Android-based tablets are enjoying success in the lower-end and eBook reader markets but there are rumors about a cheaper, smaller iPad. I personally don't think it will happen.
The great unknown here is Microsoft's Windows 8. It can run on efficient ARM processors which will allow it to operate on approximately the same hardware as Android and iOS. It may not sound that revolutionary, considering Microsoft's underwhelming success in the mobile phone market, but let's not forget: when it comes to ecosystems, they are still the biggest software producer in the world, and own both Office and Exchange, probably the most widely used business applications. If they won't mess it up, Microsoft may make a tablet OS that can actually be used for work and content creation, not just consumption.
Tablets use the same hardware as smartphone so we can assume that the same improvements we will there will apply to tablets as well. We may see newer, denser screens with resolutions greater than HD. I do hope that we won't see a 3D capable tablet.
Laptops
The laptop market shrunk in 2011, due to the increased popularity of mobile phones and tablets. Laptops are not cool anymore and netbooks seem slow and useless even for basic uses. Intel's idea to solve it is the ultrabooks, which are extremely thin, light and quite powerful laptops that look similar to Apple's Macbook Air. For the time being they haven't been a huge success, but reduced prices and more choice may change that. However, laptops will probably continue on losing ground to easier-to-use, smaller, cheaper and cooler mobile devices.
A gradual change we may see is in laptop storage: most laptops are still equipped with regular, spinning hard drives, however the new ultrabooks use the smaller solid-state drives (SSD). Increased demand for these drives will increase production and drive prices down, which in turn will make SSDs more common in less expensive machines as well. Other technologies we may see this year in some laptops are WiDi, which allows to wirelessly attach screens to laptops and OLED displays which will allows perfect viewing angles, longer battery life and thinner chassis. Intel's Thunderbolt could potentially make desktop computers obsolete by allowing external upgrades to laptops, but its adoption seem to be slowed than expected.
So what would I like to see next year in the mobile marker? I would like the stupid patent war end, better batteries, better user experience and lower prices. I wish for these every year and to be honest, the wish gets partially granted every year. I think this year will be the same.
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